haku: @journal_id 31 / yhteensä: 651
viite: 8 / 651
| Tekijä: | Ibbotson, R. G. Chen, P. |
| Otsikko: | Long-Run Stock Returns: Participating in the Real Economy |
| Lehti: | Financial Analysts' Journal
2003 : JAN-FEB, VOL. 59:1, p. 88-98 |
| Asiasana: | PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT ASSETS FINANCE ANALYTICAL REVIEW |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | The authors establish a new method for forecasting the future return of stocks over bonds by building on the relationship between the stock market, earnings, and the overall economy. They analyze historical equity returns by decomposing the 1926-2000 returns into supply factors commonly used to describe the aggregate equity market and overall economic productivity-inflation, earnings, dividends, the P/E, the dividend-payout ratio, book value, return on equity, and GDP per capita. They also examine each factor and its relationship to the long-term supply-side framework. The authors found the long-term supply of the equity risk premium to be only slightly lower than the straight historical estimate. |
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