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| Tekijä: | Wagner, M. Hlouskova, J. |
| Otsikko: | CEEC growth projections: Certainly necessary and necessarily uncertain |
| Lehti: | Economics of transition
2005 : VOL 13:2, p. 341-372 |
| Asiasana: | Transition economies Central Europe Eastern Europe Economic indicators Growth |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | This paper discusses the necessity for an indirect approach (hereafter as: i-a.) to assess the growth and convergence prospects of 10 Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC10). Ongoing structural changes and the recent European Union membership in eight of these CEEC10 countries have to be taken into account in growth projections (here as: g-ps.). This paper's i-a. consists of basing g-ps. for the CEEC10 on growth equations estimated for the incumbent EU member states. The study improves on current practice in two ways: First, growth equations are estimated for the EU14 and not on a large heterogeneous panel that includes many countries unrelated to the CEEC10. Second, by means of a variety of equations and scenarios we assess the uncertainty inherent in such projections. The growth-rate and convergence time distributions (here as: g-r-and-c-t-ds.) are presented. The mean convergence times are in line with previous findings. The g-r-and-c-t-ds. are bi-modal, reflecting the possibility of two distinct growth paths, depending on economic policy choices. |
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