haku: @indexterm insurance / yhteensä: 646
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| Tekijä: | Kuester, K. Wieland, V. |
| Otsikko: | Insurance policies for monetary policy in the Euro area |
| Lehti: | Journal of the European Economic Association
2010 : JUN, VOL. 8:4, p. 872-912 |
| Asiasana: | monetary policy insurance policy European Monetary System monetary integration euro European Union models |
| Vapaa asiasana: | EMU EMS |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | This paper aims to design a monetary (here as: mon.) policy for the euro area that is robust to the high degree of model uncertainty at the start of mon. union, allowing for learning about model probabilities. Using four reference models estimated with pre-European Monetary Union (EMU) synthetic data, compared and ultimately combined are Bayesian (here as: B.) and worst-case (as: w-c.) analysis. Three shortcomings of the w-c. insurance policy are highlighted: i. prior beliefs that would explicate it from a B. perspective, indicate that such insurance is strongly oriented towards the model with highest losses, ii. the minimax policy (as: m-m.p.) is not as tolerant towards small perturbations of policy parameters as the Bayesian policy, and iii. the m-m.p. offers no room for incorporating posteriour model probabilities derived from data available since mon. union. ... It is shown how the incoming EMU data may be used to update model probabilities. The implications for policy are explored. |
SCIMA