haku: @indexterm forecasting / yhteensä: 1417
viite: 8 / 1417
Tekijä:Ammann, M.
Berchtold, R.
Seiz, R.
Otsikko:Demographic change and pharmaceuticals' stock returns
Lehti:European Financial Management
2011 : SEP, VOL. 17:4, p. 726-754
Asiasana:pharmaceutical industry
companies
research
management
profit
demand
growth
consumption
forecasting
stocks
Vapaa asiasana:rate of return
demographics
age groups
Kieli:eng
Tiivistelmä:This paper analyzes how demographic change affected profits and returns across pharmaceutical industries over the last 20 years. Fluctuations in different age group sizes influence the estimated demand changes for age-sensitive drugs. Once a specific age group is born, these demand changes are predictable. Consumption and demographic data is used to forecast future consumption demand growth for drugs caused by demographic changes in the age structure. It is found that long-term forecast demand changes predict abnormal annual pharmaceutical stock returns for more than 60 firms over the time period from 1986 to 2008. The results of this study are consistent with the model.
SCIMA tietueen numero: 274029
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