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| Tekijä: | Ammann, M. Berchtold, R. Seiz, R. |
| Otsikko: | Demographic change and pharmaceuticals' stock returns |
| Lehti: | European Financial Management
2011 : SEP, VOL. 17:4, p. 726-754 |
| Asiasana: | pharmaceutical industry companies research management profit demand growth consumption forecasting stocks |
| Vapaa asiasana: | rate of return demographics age groups |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | This paper analyzes how demographic change affected profits and returns across pharmaceutical industries over the last 20 years. Fluctuations in different age group sizes influence the estimated demand changes for age-sensitive drugs. Once a specific age group is born, these demand changes are predictable. Consumption and demographic data is used to forecast future consumption demand growth for drugs caused by demographic changes in the age structure. It is found that long-term forecast demand changes predict abnormal annual pharmaceutical stock returns for more than 60 firms over the time period from 1986 to 2008. The results of this study are consistent with the model. |
SCIMA