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| Tekijä: | Cassar, G. |
| Otsikko: | Are individuals entering self-employment overly optimistic? An empirical test of plans and projections on nascent entrepreneur expectations |
| Lehti: | Strategic Management Journal
2010 : AUG, VOL. 31:8, p. 822-840 |
| Asiasana: | new enterprise entrepreneurship small business self-employment finance sales forecasting planning rationality expectations |
| Vapaa asiasana: | overoptimism |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | This study explores the rationality of the expectations (hereafter as: expts.) of nascent entrepreneurs (henceforth as: n-eprs). Consistent with assumptions as to entry into self-employment, there is found substantial overoptimism in n-eprs.' expts. as they overestimate the probability of their nascent activity to be resulting in an operating venture. Furthermore, for those ventures getting into operation, the expected future sales and employment are overestimated. To explain variations in overoptimism, it is argued that those individuals adopting an inside view to forecasting via usage of plans and financial projections will show greater ex-ante bias in their expts. Consistent with the inside view causing overoptimism in expts., it is found that the preparation of projected financial statements results in more over-optimistic forecasts of venture sales. |
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