haku: @indexterm business cycles / yhteensä: 529
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| Tekijä: | Guizzardi, A. Mazzocchi, M. |
| Otsikko: | Tourism demand for Italy and the business cycle |
| Lehti: | Tourism Management
2010 : JUN, VOL. 31:3, p. 367-377 |
| Asiasana: | Italy tourism demand hotel and catering industry forecasting evaluation business cycles structural analysis time series models |
| Vapaa asiasana: | seasonality |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | This study provides a strategy for modelling the effect of the business cycle on tourism demand. Using quarterly data on overnight stays in Italian hotels, both domestic and inbound from 1985 to 2004, a structural time series approach is used to evaluate two alternative models, the 1st with a latent cycle component (LCC) and the 2nd based on specific economic explanatory variables (XCV). The two models are compared as to explanatory power, best-fit, residual diagnostics and forecasting ability. There are found similar performances etc. |
SCIMA