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Tekijä:Guizzardi, A.
Mazzocchi, M.
Otsikko:Tourism demand for Italy and the business cycle
Lehti:Tourism Management
2010 : JUN, VOL. 31:3, p. 367-377
Asiasana:Italy
tourism
demand
hotel and catering industry
forecasting
evaluation
business cycles
structural analysis
time series
models
Vapaa asiasana:seasonality
Kieli:eng
Tiivistelmä:This study provides a strategy for modelling the effect of the business cycle on tourism demand. Using quarterly data on overnight stays in Italian hotels, both domestic and inbound from 1985 to 2004, a structural time series approach is used to evaluate two alternative models, the 1st with a latent cycle component (LCC) and the 2nd based on specific economic explanatory variables (XCV). The two models are compared as to explanatory power, best-fit, residual diagnostics and forecasting ability. There are found similar performances etc.
SCIMA tietueen numero: 276727
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