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Author:Heikinheimo, Elina
Title:Four scenarios for Cambodia's Tonle Sap Lake in 2030 - Testing the use of scenarios in water resources management
Neljä skenaariota Kambodzan Tonle Sap -järvelle vuonna 2030 - Skenaariotyökalujen testaamínen vesivarojen hallinnassa
Publication type:Master's thesis
Publication year:2011
Pages:115      Language:   eng
Department/School:Yhdyskunta- ja ympäristötekniikan laitos
Main subject:Vesitalous ja vesirakennus   (Yhd-12)
Supervisor:Varis, Olli
Instructor:Keskinen, Marko ; Salmivaara, Aura
OEVS:
Electronic archive copy is available via Aalto Thesis Database.
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Location:P1 Ark Aalto     | Archive
Keywords:hydropower
livelihoods
Mekong
scenarios
socio-economy
Tonle-Sap
water resources management
vesivoima
elinkeinot
Mekong
skenaariot
sosio-ekonominen
Tonle Sap
vesivarojen hallinta
Abstract (eng): The Tonle Sap Lake and its floodplains are vital for the food security, livelihoods and income of millions of people in Cambodia.
Southeast Asia is changing rapidly, and the future water resources development in the Mekong Basin can have a dramatic impact on Tonle Sap.
The primary objective of this Master's Thesis is to create scenarios for the Tonle Sap Lake in 2030, exploring the possible impact of water resources development as well as the impact of other relevant factors.
Different scenario development techniques are tested in order to explore the usefulness of scenario methodology in the field of water resources management, particularly in contexts where big changes are likely to occur in the future -as in the case of Tonle Sap.
The outcome of this study is four scenarios for the Tonle Sap Lake.

Three scenario development techniques were utilised in the scenario development process: Socio-economic trend analysis (step 1), Creating scenario logics with the Global Business Network technique (step 2) and Expert workshop (step 3).
The GBN-technique formed the backbone of scenario development in this study, whereas the trend analysis provided a current picture of the socio-economic setting in Tonle Sap.
The results of the expert workshop were extensively utilized in the writing of the final scenarios (step 4).

The next 20 years are critical for Tonle Sap.
The building of mainstream and tributary dams in the Mekong Basin would have severe impacts on the ecosystem and livelihoods of Tonle Sap.
Interestingly, however, the severity of the implications seems to largely depend on the management activities that Cambodian authorities undertake to mitigate the impacts and share the benefits of dam building, modernize the agrarian livelihoods and alleviate poverty in rural areas.
Abstract (fin): Tonle Sap -järvi tulvatasankoineen on elintärkeä miljoonien kambodzhalaisten ruokaturvalle ja elinkeinoille.
Kaakkois-Aasia kehittyy nopeasti, ja Mekongin valuma-alueen patohankkeilla voi olla dramaattinen vaikutus Tonle Sap -järveen.
Tämän diplomityön ensisijainen tavoite on luoda skenaarioita Tonle Sap -järvelle vuonna 2030, selvittämällä sekä vesivarojen hallinnan, että muiden merkittävien tekijöiden mahdollisia vaikutuksia Tonle Sapiin.
Tässä työssä testataan erilaisten skenaariotyökalujen mahdollisuuksia vesivarojen hallinnassa; erityisesti sellaisissa tapauksissa - kuten Tonle Sap - joissa on odotettavissa suuria muutoksia lähitulevaisuudessa.
Tutkimuksen lopputulos on neljä skenaariota Tonle Sap -järvelle.

Tutkimuksessa testattiin kolmea skenaariotekniikkaa: sosioekonomista trendianalyysia (vaihe 1).
Global Business Network -tekniikkaa skenaariologiikoiden rakentamisessa (vaihe 2) ja asiantuntijaverstasta (vaihe 3).
GBN-tekniikka muodostaa tutkimukselle rungon, kun taas trendianalyysi luo päivitetyn kuvan Tonle Sapin sosioekonomisesta tilanteesta.
Asiantuntijaverstaan tuloksia hyödynnettiin erityisesti lopullisten skenaarioiden kirjoittamisessa (vaihe 4).

Seuraavat 20 vuotta ovat ratkaisevia Tonle Sapin tulevaisuuden kannalta.
Mekongin pää- ja sivuvirtojen patoamisella olisi voimakkaat vaikutukset Tonle Sapin ekosysteemiin ja elinkeinoihin.
Yllättäen patojen rakentamisen seurausten vakavuus kuitenkin riippuu suuresti Kambodzhan hallinnon yrityksistä lieventää patojen vaikutuksia ja jakaa rakentamisesta aiheutuvat hyödyt tasaisesti.
Myös maaseudun elinkeinojen modernisointi ja köyhyyden lievittäminen ovat avainasemassa.
ED:2013-04-05
INSSI record number: 46050
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