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Author:Westerlund, Jaakko
Title:Sähkönkulutuksen ennustaminen ja sen vaikutus myyjän sähkön hankintakustannuksiin
Load Forecasting and It's Effects on Retailer's Electricity Purchasing Costs
Publication type:Master's thesis
Publication year:2013
Pages:xi + 94      Language:   fin
Department/School:Sähkötekniikan laitos
Main subject:Sähköjärjestelmät   (S-18)
Supervisor:Lehtonen, Matti
Instructor:Rantanen, Juha
Electronic version URL: http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:aalto-201303021619
OEVS:
Electronic archive copy is available via Aalto Thesis Database.
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Location:P1 Ark Aalto  1589   | Archive
Keywords:electricity
consumption
short-term load forecasting
balance
purchasing costs
smart grid
sähkönkulutus
ennustaminen
tasevastaava
kulutustase
hankintakustannukset
älykäs sähköverkko
Abstract (eng):Short-term load forecasting is an important part of the operation of an electricity retailer.
The purpose of the market rules is to guide the retailers towards accurate balancing of their consumption balance in which case accurate forecasting is economically rewarding.
The economical benefit can be seen in the purchasing costs of electricity to which forecasting is connected through the handling of the consumption balance.

This paper presents factors affecting electricity consumption and load forecasting.
The paper also describes the mechanics of a repetitive forecasting process.
The economical meaning of the forecasting error for the retailer is calculated by researching the effects of forecasting accuracy in the purchasing costs of electricity.
It has been also shown that the determination of purchasing costs include randomness because of the random behaviour of electricity consumption.
This constitutes a cost risk for the retailer.
Made possible by the development of smart grids, new ways of using the electrical grid create new challenges for load forecasting.
Along with the present situation this paper outlines possible future developments.
Especially the interaction between demand-side price elasticity and load forecasting is evaluated - something which has not been done by the previous research.
This part of the paper demonstrates that demand-side price elasticity can increase the retailer's cost risk.
Abstract (fin):Lyhyen tähtäimen sähkönkulutuksen ennustaminen on tärkeä osa sähkönmyyjän toimintaa.
Markkinasääntöjen tarkoituksena on ohjata myyjiä kohti kulutustaseensa tarkkaa tasapainotusta, jolloin tarkka ennustaminen palkitsee taloudellisesti.
Taloudellinen hyöty näkyy sähkön hankintakustannuksissa, joihin ennustaminen kytkeytyy kulutustaseen käsittelyn kautta.
Tässä työssä on esitelty sähkönkulutukseen ja kulutuksen ennustamiseen vaikuttavia tekijöitä sekä esitetty toistuvan ennustamisprosessin kulku.
Tutkimalla ennustetarkkuuden vaikutuksia sähkön hankintakustannuksiin on määritetty ennustevirheen taloudellinen merkitys tasevastaavana toimivan myyjän kannalta.
Lisäksi työssä on osoitettu, että sähkönkulutuksen satunnaisesta luonteesta johtuen hankintakustannuksissa esiintyy satunnaisuutta, joka muodostaa sähkönmyyjälle kustannusriskin.
Älykkään sähköverkon mahdollistamat uudet verkon käyttötavat luovat kulutuksen ennustamiselle uusia haasteita.
Nykytilanteen ohella työssä on tutkittu aihepiirin tulevaisuuden näkymiä.
Erityisesti kulutuksen kysyntäjoustoa on arvioitu ennustamisen kannalta, mitä ei aikaisemmassa tutkimuksessa ole huomioitu.
Kysyntäjoustoa koskevassa osiossa havainnollistetaan, että kysyntäjousto voi lisätä tasevastaavan sähkönhankinnan kustannusriskiä.
ED:2013-05-21
INSSI record number: 46712
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