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Author:Kahilakoski, Olli-Pekka
Title:Bayesian Regression Analysis of Sickness Absence
Sairauspoissaolojen bayesilainen regressioanalyysi
Publication type:Master's thesis
Publication year:2011
Pages:[8] + 48      Language:   eng
Department/School:Lääketieteellisen tekniikan ja laskennallisen tieteen laitos
Main subject:Laskennallinen tekniikka   (S-114)
Supervisor:Lampinen, Jouko
Instructor:Vehtari, Aki
Electronic version URL: http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:aalto-201207022670
OEVS:
Electronic archive copy is available via Aalto Thesis Database.
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Location:P1 Ark Aalto  830   | Archive
Keywords:Bayesian
regression
modeling
Gaussian process
generalized linear model
sickness absence
bayesilainen
regressio
mallintaminen
gaussinen prosessi
yleistetty lineaarimalli
sairauspoissaolo
Abstract (eng): Individual factors associated with sickness absence have previously been studied with generalized linear models.
Using Bayesian methods, we compare generalized linear models to Gaussian process models, which are flexible non-linear regression models that allow local changes in the response surface structure.
We find Gaussian process models superior for predicting sickness absence with health questionnaire data in a sample of employees of a Finnish company.

We also do variable selection for Gaussian process models using Bayesian multiple comparisons.
In agreement with previous studies, we find that depression and pain-related impairment at work are associated with increased sickness absence, with a possible saturation effect for depression.
Abstract (fin): Gaussiset prosessit ovat epälineaarisia regressiomalleja, joilla voidaan mallintaa paikallisia muutoksia vastepinnan rakenteessa.
Sairauspoissaoloihin yhteydessä olevia yksilötekijöitä on aiemmin tutkittu yleistetyillä lineaarimalleilla.
Vertaamme tässä työssä gaussisia prosesseja yleistettyihin lineaarimalleihin bayesilaisilla menetelmillä ja havaitsemme, että gaussiset prosessit ennustavat yleistettyjä lineaarimalleja paremmin sairauspoissaoloja terveyskyselyn avulla.

Teemme myös muuttujanvalinnan gaussisille prosesseille bayesilaisella monivertailumenetelmällä ja havaitsemme, että masennuksella ja kivun aiheuttamalla työhaitalla on yhteys sairauspoissaoloihin.
Tulokset ovat linjassa aiempien tutkimusten kanssa.
Lisäksi havaitsemme masennuksella ja sairauspoissaoloilla mahdollisen epälineaarisen, saturoituvan yhteyden.
ED:2011-09-07
INSSI record number: 42711
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