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Author:Ervasto, Markus
Title:Pienydinreaktoreiden taloudellinen kannattavuus
Economical Feasibility of Small Modular Reactors
Publication type:Master's thesis
Publication year:2014
Pages:67      Language:   fin
Department/School:Energiatekniikan laitos
Main subject:Energiatekniikka   (K3007)
Supervisor:Syri, Sanna
Instructor:Ala-Heikkilä, Jarmo
Electronic version URL: http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:aalto-201411043002
OEVS:
Electronic archive copy is available via Aalto Thesis Database.
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Location:P1 Ark Aalto  4861   | Archive
Keywords:small modular reactor
economic feasibility
pienydinreaktori
kannattavuus
kevytvesireaktori
sulasuolareaktori
nestemetallireaktori
Abstract (eng):The objective of this work was to see if Small Modular Reactors are economically feasible in selected market areas.
The areas chosen were Finland, Great Britain and Tennessee.
This was accomplished by using source material only from public sources.
A survey to the technology of the SMRs was also made in addition to the economical feasibility study and a short description was written for over 40 reactor concepts.
There are many more SMR concepts in addition to the concept covered in this work.

Economic feasibility was evaluated in years 2020 and 2030 in addition to present mo-ment by using electricity price forecasts from public sources.
An estimate for the price of produced electricity was found for eight SMR concepts.
The price of produced electricity difference between the cheapest and most expensive SMR concept was large: the cheapest was 3,1 cents/kWh and the most expensive was 10,4 cents/kWh (in year 2013 US$).

The result was that all of the eight SMRs would be economically feasible in Great Britain and possibly in Finland.
Some of them would also be economically feasible in Tennessee.
In this work the comparison was made to the average electricity prices, but a comparison to market prices, such as spot-prices would tell about the economical feasibility in more detail.

The data about the average market electricity prices are accurate and the forecasts are probably quite accurate as well.
The estimates about the electricity prices for reactors may be inaccurate because the development of the reactors is not finished.
It is not mentioned in the sources what kind of assumptions were made when estimating the price of pro-duced electricity.
For example payback time and rate of return remain unknown.
Abstract (fin):Tässä työssä pyrittiin selvittämään pienydinreaktoreiden taloudellista kannattavuutta valikoiduilla markkinoilla, joiksi valikoituivat Iso-Britannia, Suomi ja Tennessee.
Työ toteutettiin kirjallisuustutkimuksena käyttäen hyväksi vain julkisia lähteitä.
Kannattavuustutkimuksen lisäksi työssä tehtiin katsaus pienydinreaktoreiden tekniikkaan ja lyhyt tekninen yhteenveto tehtiin yli 40 reaktorikonseptista.
Pienydinreaktorikonsepteja tosin on olemassa vielä paljon enemmän.

Taloudellista kannattavuutta arvioitiin tämänhetkisen tilanteen lisäksi vuosina 2020 ja 2030 perustuen julkisista lähteistä löytyviin sähkön hinnan ennusteisiin.
Tuotetun sähkön hinnalle löydettiin arviot kahdeksalle reaktorikonseptille.
Ero halvimman ja kalleimman reaktorikonseptin välillä oli suuri; edullisimman arvion mukaan pienydinreaktorilla voisi tuottaa sähköä hinnalla 3,1 senttiä/kWh ja kalleimmalla 10,4 senttiä/kWh (molemmat vuoden 2013 US$).

Työssä havaittiin kaikkien kahdeksan pienydinreaktorikonseptin olevan kannattavia Iso-Britanniassa ja mahdollisesti myös Suomessa.
Osa konsepteista olisi kannattavia myös Tennesseessä.
Tässä työssä vertailu tehtiin keskimääräisiin sähkön hintoihin mutta paremmin kannattavuus näkyisi vertaamalla markkinahintoihin, kuten esimerkiksi spot-hintoihin.

Tiedot sähkön keskimääräisistä hinnoista ovat tarkkoja ja myös ennusteet lienevät melko tarkkoja.
Sen sijaan arviot pienydinreaktoreilla tuotetun sähkön hinnasta saattavat olla epätarkkoja, sillä monen reaktorikonseptin kehitys on pahasti kesken.
Lähdeteksteissä ei myöskään ole mainintoja siitä millaisilla lähtötiedoilla arviot tuotetun sähkön hinnasta on tehty.
Muun muassa tuotto-odotukset ja takaisinmaksuajat jäävät arvailujen varaan.
ED:2014-11-02
INSSI record number: 50005
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