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Author:Vesterinen, Heikki
Title:Statistical Regression Models for Ship Performance Analysis
Tilastolliset regressiomallit laivan suorituskyvyn analysoinnissa
Publication type:Master's thesis
Publication year:2012
Pages:[7] + 60 s. + liitt. 8      Language:   fin
Department/School:Matematiikan ja systeemianalyysin laitos
Main subject:Sovellettu matematiikka   (Mat-2)
Supervisor:Salo, Ahti
Instructor:Kariranta, Risto
OEVS:
Electronic archive copy is available via Aalto Thesis Database.
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Location:P1 Ark Aalto  224   | Archive
Keywords:ship performance analysis
hull fouling
additive model
laivan suorituskykyanalyysi
laivan rungon likaantuminen
additiivinen malli
Abstract (eng): High fuel prices and environmental regulations are forcing shipping companies to pay more attention on the energy efficiency of their vessels.
Hull and propeller fouling is a significant reason for decreased energy efficiency.
Many companies offer different kinds of solutions to deal with fouling.
However, there is not much independent research about the assessment methods for the effects of hull and propeller fouling or about the effectiveness of the actions for reducing the impact of fouling.

The purpose of this thesis is to establish a method for assessing hull and propeller performance, meaning the relationship between shaft power and the speed that can be maintained with it.
An easily understandable and transparent indicator, the Hull performance index, is provided for monitoring the development of hull and propeller performance.

The performance analysis is based on the regression modeling of the power consumption of a vessel.
The data sets used for the regression consist of recorded data from two sister vessels, supplemented by weather forecasts and an ocean depth database.
Additive models are fitted to the data sets and they are used to estimate the contribution of environmental and operational factors on power consumption.
Estimated power consumption at service speed in calm water conditions compared to the long-term average is described by the Hull performance index.

The accuracy of the fitted additive models is satisfactory as the root-mean-square errors for test sets are 2.8% and 3.2% of the mean shaft powers.
The performance analysis method developed in this thesis is accurate enough to identify changes less than 5% in hull and propeller performance.
The measurement of speed through water by a speed log was found to be prone to errors.
However, it is crucial for the analysis.
Thus, further research is needed to develop methods for estimating it more accurately.
Abstract (fin): Korkeiden polttoaineen hintojen ja ympäristösäännösten johdosta laivanvarustamot ovat alkaneet enenevässä määrin kiinnittää huomiota laivojensa energiatehokkuuteen.
Rungon ja potkurin likaantuminen on merkittävä syy heikentyneeseen energiatehokkuuteen.
Monet yritykset tarjoavat ratkaisuja likaantumisen ehkäisemiseksi.
Kuitenkin vain vähän riippumatonta tutkimusta on julkaistu menetelmistä, joilla voidaan arvioida rungon ja potkurin likaantumisen vaikutusta sekä likaantumista ehkäisevien ratkaisujen tehokkuutta.

Tämän diplomityön tarkoitus on kehittää menetelmä rungon ja potkurin suorituskyvyn arvioimiseen.
Rungon ja potkurin suorituskyvyllä tarkoitetaan akselitehon ja laivan nopeuden välistä riippuvuutta.
Suorituskyvyn kehittymisen seuraamiseksi määrittelemme rungon suorituskykyindeksin.

Suorituskyvyn analysointi perustuu laivan tehonkulutuksen mallintamiseen regression avulla.
Työssä käytetty havaintoaineisto koostuu kahdelta sisaralukselta kerätystä datasta, sääennusteista ja merten syvyystietokannasta.
Havaintoaineistoihin sovitettiin additiiviset mallit, joilla arvioitiin eri tekijöiden vaikutusta laivan tehonkulutukseen.
Mallien avulla estimoitiin laivojen tehonkulutusta matkanopeudella tyynessä säässä, jonka muutosta pitkän ajan keskiarvoon kuvataan rungon suorituskykyindeksillä.

Sovitettujen additiivisten mallien ennustuskyky testiaineistoilla oli hyvä keskineliövirheen neliöjuurien ollessa 2.8% ja 3.2% keskimääräisistä akselitehoista.
Suorituskykyanalyysimenetelmä on riittävän tarkka, jotta sillä voidaan erottaa alle 5% muutokset rungon ja potkurin suorituskyvyssä.
Vesinopeusmittarin huomattiin olevan altis virheille.
Vesinopeus on erittäin tärkeä suorituskykyanalyysin kannalta, mistä johtuen on syytä tutkia lisää menetelmiä, joilla sitä voidaan estimoida tarkemmin.
ED:2012-09-24
INSSI record number: 45295
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