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Author:Ekström, Jussi
Title:Statistical Analysis of Large Scale Wind Power Generation
Laajamittaisen tuulivoimatuotannon tilastollinen analyysi
Publication type:Master's thesis
Publication year:2014
Pages:viii + 72      Language:   eng
Department/School:Sähkötekniikan korkeakoulu
Main subject:Sähköjärjestelmät   (S3015)
Supervisor:Lehtonen, Matti
Instructor:Koivisto, Matti ; Matilainen, Jussi
Electronic version URL: http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:aalto-201404181716
OEVS:
Electronic archive copy is available via Aalto Thesis Database.
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Location:P1 Ark Aalto  1014   | Archive
Keywords:copula
Monte Carlo simulation
vector autoregressive model
Weibull distribution
wind speed
wind power
autoregressiivinen malli
kopula
Monte Carlo -simulaatio
tuulen nopeus
tuulivoima
Weibull-jakauma
Abstract (eng):The amount of wind power generation is increasing in many countries and therefore, the effects of wind power on the electric power system are becoming more and more important.
Two time series models are developed in this thesis, the transformed VAR model with time-dependent intercept term and the transformed ARC model.
The models can be used in Monte Carlo simulations to determine the risk of very high or low wind speeds occurring contemporaneously in several locations.
The feasibility of the models is evaluated for existing measured locations and new non-measured locations.
The models are verified against 21 measurement locations from Finland.
In addition, example scenarios of the applications of the models are presented.
Abstract (fin):Tuulituotannon määrä kasvaa jatkuvasti monissa maissa, ja täten lisääntyneen tuulituotannon vaikutukset sähköjärjestelmään tulevat yhä merkittävämmiksi.
Tässä diplomityössä kehitettiin kaksi aikasarjamallia, VAR-malli aikariippuvalla leikkaustermillä muunnetulle datalle ja ARC-malli muunnetulle datalle.
Malleja voidaan käyttää Monte Carlo -simulaatioissa sellaisten tilanteiden todennäköisyyksien määrittämiseen, missä esiintyy erittäin suuria tai matalia tuulennopeuksia samanaikaisesti monissa eri kohteissa.
Mallien käyttökelpoisuutta arvioidaan kahdenlaisissa tilanteissa, sellaisissa joissa mallinnetaan olemassa olevia kohteita joista on mittausdataa, ja sellaisissa, joissa mallinnetaan uusia kohteita joista ei ole lainkaan mittausdataa.
Esitetyt mallit todennetaan vertaamalla niiden antamia simulaatiotuloksia 21:een mittauskohteeseen Suomesta.
Lisäksi esitellään esimerkkitilanteita mallien eri sovellusmahdollisuuksista.
ED:2014-04-20
INSSI record number: 48937
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