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Author:Arima, Kim-Mikael
Title:The Future of Solar Power: Demand-Based Disruption in the Electricity Market
Aurinkoenergian tulevaisuus: kysyntään pohjautuva disruptio sähkömarkkinassa
Publication type:Master's thesis
Publication year:2009
Pages:117 s. + liitt.      Language:   eng
Department/School:Tuotantotalouden laitos
Main subject:Yritysstrategia ja kansainvälinen liiketoiminta   (TU-91)
Supervisor:Laamanen, Tomi
Instructor:Tennilä, Pauliina ; Paltschik, Mikael
OEVS:
Electronic archive copy is available via Aalto Thesis Database.
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Location:P1 Ark Aalto  7727   | Archive
Keywords:solar power
technological disruption
landscape theory
business model
aurinkoenergia
teknologinen disruptio
landscape-teoria
liiketoimintamalli
Abstract (eng): Today, the electricity market is faced with a set of contradictory challenges.
While global consumption of electricity is estimated to double between 2006 and 2030, several dynamics, climate change and looming scarcity of fossil fuels among them, are working to make meeting the expanding consumption rather difficult.
Renewable energy technologies are emerging as a possible solution to this seeming dichotomy.

Solar power has a distinct set of attributes that make it a prime candidate for helping the world to both increase electricity production while simultaneously reducing carbon dioxide emissions as well as our dependence on fossil fuels.
Moreover, solar power clearly exhibits traits of technological disruption.

This research examines future market opportunities for solar power that are likely to emerge as a result of profound changes in the landscape of the electricity market wrought by several far-reaching dynamics.
In order to answer the main research question, the following subquestions are set:.

What are the attributes that define the landscape of the electricity market?

What is the path of disruption for solar power?

What are the dynamics precipitating the disruption?

The theories of landscape and technological disruption are tapped and condensed into a framework, which is then applied to scrutinize foreseeable developments in the electricity market.
Based on this assessment, answers are provided to the second set of subquestions:.

What are the profit pockets for solar power in the near future?

What technologies are required to tap the profit pockets?

What kind of a business model is required to orchestrate the technologies?

Future market opportunities for solar power are identified, as well as the technologies required to exploit these opportunities.
Finally, a business model for orchestrating and leveraging the technologies is outlined.
Abstract (fin): Sähkömarkkinat nykytilanne on sangen ongelmallinen.
Yhtäällä globaalin sähkönkulutuksen arvioidaan kaksinkertaistuvan vuosien 2006 ja 2030 välillä; toisaalla lukuisat kehityskulut, ilmaston lämpeneminen ja fossiilisten polttoaineiden niukkuus näiden joukossa, uhkaavat kykyämme vastata alati laajenevan kysynnän asettamaan haasteeseen.
Uusiutuvaan energiaan perustuvat teknologiat ovat nousemassa potentiaaliseksi ratkaisuksi tähän ristiriitaan.

Poikkeuksellisten ominaisuuksiensa ansiosta aurinkoenergia mahdollistaa sähköntuotannon lisäämisen, samalla kuitenkin vähentäen kasvihuonekaasupäästöjä sekä riippuvuutta fossiilisista polttoaineista.
Aurinkoenergia osoittaa myös selkeitä ennusmerkkejä teknologisesta disruptiosta.

Tämä diplomityö tarkastelee tulevaisuuden markkinamahdollisuuksia, joita aurinkoenergialle syntyy erinäisten kauaskantoisten kehityskulkujen saadessa aikaan perustavanlaatuisia muutoksia sähkömarkkinassa.
Päätutkimusongelmasta on johdettu seuraavat tutkimuskysymykset:.

Mitkä tekijät määrittelevät sähkömarkkinan "maiseman" (engl. landscape)?

Mikä on aurinkoenergian disruptiopolku?

Mitkä kehityskulut kiihdyttävät disruptiota?

Viitekehyksen muodostamisessa hyödynnetään sekä landscape- että teknologisen disruption teoriaa.
Viitekehystä sovelletaan edelleen ennakoitavissa olevien sähkömarkkinan kehityskulkujen tarkastelussa, josta johdetaan vastaukset seuraaviin tutkimuskysymyksiin:.

Mitkä ovat aurinkoenergian tuottokeskittymät lähitulevaisuudessa?

Mitkä teknologiat vaaditaan tuottokeskittymien hyödyntämiseen?

Millainen liiketoimintamalli vaaditaan teknologioiden orkestroimiseen?

Kun aurinkoenergian tulevaisuuden markkinamahdollisuudet on tunnistettu, niiden hyödyntämiseen vaaditut teknologiat voidaan päätellä.
Viimeiseksi hahmotellaan kyseisten teknologioiden orkestroimiseen vaadittava bisnesmalli.
ED:2010-02-08
INSSI record number: 38883
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