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Author:Hyttinen, Noora
Title:The effect of experience on knowledge extraction from accident reports
Kokemuksen vaikutus tiedon hankintaan onnettomuusraporteista
Publication type:Master's thesis
Publication year:2013
Pages:74 + [6]      Language:   eng
Department/School:Perustieteiden korkeakoulu
Main subject:Sovellettu matematiikka   (Mat-2)
Supervisor:Salo, Ahti
Instructor:Mazaheri, Arsham
OEVS:
Electronic archive copy is available via Aalto Thesis Database.
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Location:P1 Ark Aalto  253   | Archive
Keywords:Bayesian Network
accident report
grounding
Bayes-verkko
onnettomuusraportti
karilleajo
Abstract (eng): Databases built from information that is attained from existing accident reports are needed for accident research.
These databases can be used for instance to build mathematical models of accident causes.
One method that is used in accident research is Bayesian Networks.

In the thesis the effects of experience to the differences in the Bayesian Networks are studied using two test groups.
The accident reports in this study are grounding accident reports written by Finnish Safety Investigation Authority.
The test groups were researchers and nautical experts.
Each participant formed a Bayesian Network of the accident causes that were mentioned in each report and the networks were compared with each other.

Some differences were observed between the groups but there were also differences within the groups.
Especially causes linked to navigation were more clearly present in the mariners' answers and the external factors in the researchers' answers.
Based on the results of the study we can conclude that the background of the reviewer of the accident reports should be considered, because it affects the resulting models and the research of accident causes.
Abstract (fin): Onnettomuustutkimusta varten tarvitaan tietokantoja, jotka rakennetaan onnettomuusraporteista hankittujen tietojen avulla.
Tietokantojen avulla voidaan mm. rakentaa matemaattisia malleja onnettomuuksien syistä.
Yksi onnettomuustutkimuksissa käytetty menetelmä on Bayes-verkot.

Työssä tutkitaan kahden koeryhmän avulla kokemuksen vaikutusta Bayes-verkkojen eroavaisuuksiin.
Onnettomuusraportteina käytettiin Onnettomuustutkimuskeskuksen kirjoittamia karilleajo-onnettomuusraportteja.
Koeryhminä olivat tutkijat ja merenkulun ammattilaiset.
Koeryhmän jokainen osallistuja muodosti Bayes-verkon kussakin onnettomuusraportissa mainituista onnettomuussyistä ja verkkoja verrattiin toisiinsa.

Työssä havaittiin muutamia eroavaisuuksia ryhmien välillä, mutta eroja löytyy myös ryhmien sisällä.
Erityisesti navigointiin liittyvät onnettomuussyyt olivat selvemmin esillä merenkulun ammattilaisten vastauksissa ja ulkoiset syyt tutkijoiden vastauksissa.
Työn tuloksista voidaan päätellä, että onnettomuusraporttien lukijan taustaan on syytä kiinnittää huomiota, sillä se vaikuttaa syntyviin malleihin ja mallien myötä onnettomuuksien syiden tutkimiseen.
ED:2013-10-29
INSSI record number: 47411
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