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| Tekijä: | Laibson, D. Mollerstrom, J. |
| Otsikko: | Capital flows, consumption booms and asset bubbles: a behavioural alternative to the savings glut hypothesis |
| Lehti: | Economic Journal
2010 : MAY, VOL 120:544 p. 354-374 |
| Asiasana: | consumption investments capital flows VISIBLE BALANCE OECD China |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | Bernanke (2005) hypothesized that a "global savings glut" was causing large trade imbalances. However, it is represented in this paper that the global savings rates did not show a robust upward trend during the relevant period. Moreover, if there had been a global savings glut there should have been a great investment boom in the countries that imported capital. Instead, those countries went through booms of consumption. National asset bubbles explain the multinational imbalances. The bubbles raised consumption, resulting in large trade deficit. In a sample of 18 OECD countries plus China, changes in home prices explain half of the variations in trade deficits. |
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