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| Tekijä: | Åsterbro, T. Koehler, D.J. |
| Otsikko: | Calibration accuracy of a judgmental process that predicts the commercial success of new product ideas |
| Lehti: | Journal of Behavioral Decision Making
2007 : OCT, VOL. 20:4, p. 381-403 |
| Asiasana: | new products innovation forecasting success |
| Vapaa asiasana: | judgment |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | This study examines the accuracy of forecasts of the commercial potential of new product ideas by experts at an Inventor's Assistance Program (IAP). Each idea is evaluated in terms of 37 attributes / cues, which are subjectively rated and intuitively combined by an IAP expert to find out a forecast of commercialization (here as: comm-n.) prospects of the idea. Data regarding actual comm-n. outcomes for 559 new product ideas were collected to examine the accuracy of the IAP forecasts. The intensive IAP evaluation (as: eval.) of each idea produces forecasts that accurately rank order of the ideas in terms of their probability of comm-n. The focus of the eval. process on case-specific evidence that distinguishes one idea from another one etc. |
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