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| Tekijä: | Artis, M.J. Fidrmuc, J. Scharler, J. |
| Otsikko: | The transmission of business cycles: Implications for EMU enlargement |
| Lehti: | Economics of transition
2008 : VOL. 16:3, p. 559582 |
| Asiasana: | business cycles currency trade direct investment labour markets EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEM |
| Vapaa asiasana: | optimum currency area theory |
| Kieli: | eng |
| Tiivistelmä: | Countries with large bilateral trade and financial flows tend to have more correlated business cycles. It is also found that countries with divergent fiscal policies and highly regulated labour markets are subject to idiosyncratic cycles. Applying these rules weakens the optimistic view towards European Monetary Union's future. The results suggest that extensive trade and financial linkages will probably lead to further increases in business cycle correlation. However, an increase in labour market regulation and the pursuit of national fiscal policies may result in a counteracting effect. |
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